VCIX

Venezuela Comeback Index

0 = the panel's recent directional-growth norm · recomputed hourly

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VCIX Activity

+0.22

+0.1 ptslatest monthly reading · 3-month average

VCIX Breadth

+64

–100 all deteriorating · +100 all improving

Activity history

+0.78 ptsALL

Activity is a zero-centred standardized factor, not a percentage or a score out of 100. Positive readings are stronger than the panel's recent norm; negative readings are weaker. Pre-launch history is reconstructed from the latest observation revisions because release vintages were not stored.

Breadth history

-36.11 ptsALL

Breadth is the balance of improving and deteriorating pillar signals on a –100 to +100 scale, using the same qualified universe as Activity.

Latest methodology change

Aug 10Oil basket constituent update — Removed oil-production-kbd: latest 2026-05 period was 71 days stale and correlated r=0.951 with oil-rigs-count across 129 overlapping months; history remains published; oil-rigs-count is sole Oil constituent; panel audit passes.

View 6 earlier changes

Aug 9VCI panel v1.1 → v1.2 — The index basket changed from ten declared constituents to seven, and the published level moved from 405.94 (3-month smoothed 405.14) to 273.52 (smoothed 276.07). This is a correction to the basket, not a decline in the economy: the same underlying observations produce a different level because a different, smaller set of series now defines recovery. Removed: fx-trust-gap-pct (its measured leg p2p-usdt-ves is written by two collectors, one of them class C, so the derived series cannot clear the panel's A/B source bar -- it remains published as the flagship Ground Truth reading); bank-credit-ves-bn (r=0.925 with bank-deposits-ves-bn over 58 months); new-vehicle-sales and commercial-vehicle-sales (r=0.934 over 30 months), replaced by their derived sum total-vehicle-sales so the segment split is not counted twice. Three engine defects were fixed in the same change, and they are the reason the previous level was overstated. MIN_PANEL_MONTHS applied a months-based depth bar to series of any cadence, so the annual Trade constituent was silently dropped and the pillar rendered empty. The Production pillar was dark because its two series carried a null pillar in the database. coveragePct divided by the constituents that survived construction rather than the constituents declared, so the site reported 100% coverage while three of ten were missing and two of five pillars were empty. All five pillars now carry a value for the first time. Median absolute month-over-month change fell from 3.56% to 3.02%, and the cumulative splice factor from 1.573x to 1.173x. Every constituent clears pnpm db:audit-panel, which passed for the first time on this change.

52w activity high

+0.22

52w activity low

-0.80

Current breadth

+64

Signal coverage

5/7 · 71%

+0.07

FX trust gap

10.1%

Pillars and component series

Pillar	Vote	Activity	Breadth	Series
Oil, Gas & Exports	20%	0.00	0	Show the series Active Oil Rigsoil-rigs-count
Monetary & FX Stability	20%	+1.03	+83	Show the series Inflation (MoM)inflation-mom-pct Bolívar Official-Rate Changefx-daily-depreciation-pct
Banking & Corporate Health	20%	+0.34

Legacy chain-linked level

Retained for audit and continuity only. Its 2021=100 reference is not a fixed basket, not a recovery percentage, and no longer the public headline.

Latest legacy level: 364.40
Legacy reference: 2021 = 100

Signals to watch

Methodology factsheet

Activity, breadth, source-family caps, equal pillar votes, the legacy audit series, data grading, and known limitations. Last computed Oct 2, 2026.

Read the factsheet Inspect the data manifest