FX Trust Gap
How far the market trades above the official rate. The clearest available read on trust in the official rate.
Full history
- Official
- official-fx-usdves
- VCIx measured
- p2p-usdt-ves
- History
- 141 observations
Ground truth
Venezuela's official statistics are late, sparse and widely distrusted. We measure independently — from things people actually buy and sell — and publish the gap. The gap is the point.
The flagship gap
How far the market trades above the official BCV rate — the clearest available read on trust in the official number. Narrowing means the official rate is becoming believable again.
14.1%
market 868.3 vs official 761.2 · Aug 11, 2026
Narrowed from 16.3% a month ago
How far the market trades above the official rate. The clearest available read on trust in the official rate.
Full history
Gaps are only published where the official and measured series describe the same thing in comparable units. Pairings that would produce arithmetic without meaning are deliberately excluded, and a gap is never computed against an official print more than two release cycles old.
VES/USDT
868.3
as of Aug 11, 2026
+14.1% vs official
P2P premium over official rate — real market signal
VES/USD
867.1
as of Aug 11, 2026
+13.9% vs official
Parallel premium over official
VES
149,383.1
as of Aug 11, 2026
Daily consumer-price proxy — see Inflation Gap above for the official comparison
USD
755.5
as of Aug 11, 2026
Advertised round-trip fare on KAYAK's explicit Miami–Caracas (MIA–CCS) route page. Tracked as a route-access and travel-cost proxy — not ticket sales, passenger volume, or flight operations; no comparable official series is linked here, so no gap is computed.
listings
3,398
as of Aug 11, 2026
Private-sector supply signal