Oil recovery advances, but FX pressure and deposit softness complicate the picture
The recovery signal remains led by hydrocarbons: export revenue rose, new offtake deals lifted crude shipments, and upstream capacity is being restored through Petropiar and Petrocedeño. But domestic operating conditions are less clean, with the parallel FX rate widening sharply, USD deposits falling, and inflation still running hot in the latest available print.
By the numbers
Oil Export Revenue
USD 1,594.49m
+1.5%
Parallel FX Rate
VES 851.68/USD
+4.0%
Bank System Deposits
USD 11.81bn
-4.8%
Air Passengers
460.21k
+3.0%
Startup Funding (TTM)
USD 74.28m
+5.0%
Inflation (MoM)
13.8%
+7.5pp vs prior
What to watch
August 2026
Watch whether reported 1.2mn bpd crude exports convert into another monthly gain in oil export revenue.
August 2026
Track the impact of the Petrocedeño upgrader restart and the USD 500m Petropiar expansion deal on sustained production gains.
August-November 2026
Monitor Maiquetía operations: temporary terminals are reactivating flights, but the main runway closure has been extended until November.
Next banking release
Focus on whether quarterly deposit growth at Banco de Venezuela offsets the latest decline in system-wide USD deposits.
Next FX update
Watch the gap between the official and parallel rates after the latest sharp move in the informal market.
Worth your time
- Chevron signs 500 million dollar expansion deal for Petropiar joint venture
Reuters
- PDVSA restarts Petrocedeño upgrader, adding 40kbd of extra-heavy crude capacity in the Orinoco Belt
Reuters
- Oil output edges toward 1 million barrels
Reuters
- PDVSA restarts Petrocedeño upgrader, adding 40kbd
Reuters
- Inflation momentum cools for third month
Observatorio Venezolano
- Cashea closes $20M Series B to expand merchant credit in Venezuela
Bloomberg Línea