Oil recovery advances, but FX pressure and deposit softness complicate the picture
The recovery signal remains led by hydrocarbons: export revenue rose, new offtake deals lifted crude shipments, and upstream capacity is being restored through Petropiar and Petrocedeño. But domestic operating conditions are less clean, with the parallel FX rate widening sharply, USD deposits falling, and inflation still running hot in the latest available print.
By the numbers
Oil Export Revenue
USD 1,594.49m
+1.5%
Parallel FX Rate
VES 851.68/USD
+4.0%
Bank System Deposits
USD 11.81bn
-4.8%
Air Passengers
460.21k
+3.0%
Startup Funding (TTM)
USD 74.28m
+5.0%
Inflation (MoM)
13.8%
+7.5pp vs prior
Startup spotlight
What to watch
- August 2026Watch whether reported 1.2mn bpd crude exports convert into another monthly gain in oil export revenue.
- August 2026Track the impact of the Petrocedeño upgrader restart and the USD 500m Petropiar expansion deal on sustained production gains.
- August-November 2026Monitor Maiquetía operations: temporary terminals are reactivating flights, but the main runway closure has been extended until November.
- Next banking releaseFocus on whether quarterly deposit growth at Banco de Venezuela offsets the latest decline in system-wide USD deposits.
- Next FX updateWatch the gap between the official and parallel rates after the latest sharp move in the informal market.
Reading list
- Chevron signs 500 million dollar expansion deal for Petropiar joint venture — Reuters
- PDVSA restarts Petrocedeño upgrader, adding 40kbd of extra-heavy crude capacity in the Orinoco Belt — Reuters
- Oil output edges toward 1 million barrels — Reuters
- PDVSA restarts Petrocedeño upgrader, adding 40kbd — Reuters
- Inflation momentum cools for third month — Observatorio Venezolano
- Cashea closes $20M Series B to expand merchant credit in Venezuela — Bloomberg Línea