Oil recovery broadens, but FX slippage and inflation keep the macro backdrop fragile
Recovery signals stayed positive into August: oil output and export revenue rose again, bank deposits expanded, and transport and non-oil trade indicators improved. But the currency weakened sharply on both official and parallel markets, while the latest inflation print remains the key constraint on operating conditions.
By the numbers
Oil Production
916.01 kbd
+1.2%
Oil Export Revenue
USD 1,594.49m
+1.5%
Official FX Rate
755.9 VES/USD
+4.0%
Parallel FX Rate
851.68 VES/USD
+4.0%
Bank System Deposits
USD 11.81bn
+2.0%
Inflation (MoM)
13.8%
from 6.3%
What to watch
August 2026
Watch whether Petropiar expansion and the Petrocedeño restart lift crude output closer to 1mn bpd.
August-November 2026
Monitor Maiquetía operations after temporary terminals were installed, against the extended main runway closure through November.
Next FX and CPI updates
Focus on whether the recent 4% move in both FX rates feeds through to another step-up in monthly inflation.
Q3 2026
Track deposit trends after Banco de Venezuela reported 12% quarterly deposit growth.
Worth your time
- Chevron signs 500 million dollar expansion deal for Petropiar joint venture
Reuters
- PDVSA restarts Petrocedeño upgrader, adding 40kbd of extra-heavy crude capacity in the Orinoco Belt
Reuters
- Oil output edges toward 1 million barrels
Reuters
- PDVSA restarts Petrocedeño upgrader, adding 40kbd
Reuters
- Inflation momentum cools for third month
Observatorio Venezolano
- Cashea closes $20M Series B to expand merchant credit in Venezuela
Bloomberg Línea