Oil operating signals improve, but FX stress and weaker revenue keep the recovery uneven.
Operational indicators still point to incremental recovery: air traffic, industrial power demand, bank deposits and non-oil exports all moved higher, while oil infrastructure news was constructive. But the macro picture remains fragile, with oil export revenue down sharply, the parallel FX rate widening faster than the official rate, and inflation still elevated in the latest available print.
By the numbers
Oil Export Revenue
USD 1,594.49m
-13.8%
Parallel FX Rate
VES 851.68/USD
+4.0%
Bank System Deposits
USD 11.81bn
+2.0%
Non-Oil Exports
USD 310.05m
+2.2%
Air Passengers
460.21k
+3.0%
Inflation (MoM)
13.8%
+7.5pp vs prior month
What to watch
August 2026
Watch whether reported gains in crude exports and the Petrocedeño restart feed into August oil production and export revenue data.
August-November 2026
Maiquetía remains a key transport variable after temporary terminals were installed but the main runway closure was extended until November.
August 2026
Monitor deposit growth and FX spreads after Banco de Venezuela reported quarterly deposit growth and the parallel rate accelerated faster than the official rate.
Next inflation release
The next monthly inflation print will be critical after the latest available reading showed 13.8% MoM.
Worth your time
- Chevron signs 500 million dollar expansion deal for Petropiar joint venture
Reuters
- PDVSA restarts Petrocedeño upgrader, adding 40kbd of extra-heavy crude capacity in the Orinoco Belt
Reuters
- Oil output edges toward 1 million barrels
Reuters
- PDVSA restarts Petrocedeño upgrader, adding 40kbd
Reuters
- Inflation momentum cools for third month
Observatorio Venezolano
- Cashea closes $20M Series B to expand merchant credit in Venezuela
Bloomberg Línea