Brief
Ecoanalítica estimates that Venezuela would need creditors to write off about 50% to 60% of its external debt for the remaining burden to become sustainable. Alejandro Grisanti presented the firm’s assessment, placing the scale of any eventual restructuring at the center of the debt debate. In Ecoanalítica’s view, a smaller reduction would not be enough to restore sustainability.
A haircut of this magnitude would imply substantial creditor losses and shape recovery values for Venezuelan claims. It also indicates how far the current external-debt burden may be from a sustainable level, a key constraint on renewed access to international financing.
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Sep 12, 2026
Watch for a detailed Ecoanalítica debt-sustainability calculation and whether Venezuelan authorities or creditor groups begin discussing restructuring terms within the estimated 50%-60% haircut range.